Thursday, June 6, 2013

Mets 2013 Draft Results

Players have until Friday, July 12th to sign. Picks in the first 10 rounds in the draft are assigned pool values. The total pool value of the Mets' 11 picks from the 2013 Draft's first 10 rounds is $6,990,000. If the Mets sign all of these first 11 picks, that total represents the penalty-free money they would be able to spend. Any amount over that total would be taxed at a 75% rate. Any amount more than 5% over that total would result in the loss of future draft picks (this is a threshold that has not yet been breached by any club). Additionally, for all signings outside the first 10 rounds for more than $100,000, the overage counts against the pool total. Any unsigned picks from the first 10 rounds do not contribute their pick value to the Mets 2013 pool.

RndPlayerSigning BonusPool AllotmentDifferenceOfficial?
1Dominic Smith$2,600,000$2,840,300$240,300 - UnderYes
2Andrew Church$850,000$1,138,800$288,800 - UnderYes
3Ivan Wilson$624,900$724,900$100,000 - UnderYes
3Casey Meisner$500,000$640,900$140,900 - UnderYes
4LJ Mazzilli$300,000$441,800$141,800 - UnderYes
5Jared King$450,000$330,800$119,200 - OverYes
6Champ Stuart$300,000$247,700$52,300 - OverYes
7Matt Oberste$325,000$185,700$139,300 - OverYes
8Ricky Knapp$130,000$156,500$26,500 - UnderYes
9Patrick Biondi$10,000$146,200$136,200 - UnderYes
10Luis Guillorme$200,000$136,400$63,600 - OverYes
11Ty Bashlor$550,000up to $100,000$450,000 - OverYes
12Jeff McNeilUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
13Kevin McGowanUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
15Colton PlaiaUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
16Zach MathieuUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
17John MagliozziUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
18Brent McMinnUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
20Dan Herrmann$200,000up to $100,000$100,000 - OverYes
23Gaither BumgardnerUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
25Ricky JacquezUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
28Robby ColesUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
33Ryan ChapmanUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
34Cameron GriffinUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
35Ty WilliamsUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
36Brandon Brosher$167,500up to $100,000$67,500 - OverYes
38Paul PaezUnknownup to $100,000UnknownYes
Pool Total $6,907,400$6,990,000$82,600 - Under

Thanks to everyone who tweets, e-mails, etc to help me put this list together & keep it updated. Hat tips, especially, to @PSLToFlushing, @nymets945, @tobyhyde, @MitchNYM, @WexlerRules, @DanDotLewis, @RealKenDick, and obviously @jimcallisBA and all the folks at @BaseballAmerica.

Players in bold have officially signed.

RndPickPlayerPosSchool (Class, if college)BA Top 500
111Dominic Smith1BJunipero Serra HS, CA14
248Andrew ChurchRHPBasic HS, NV89
376Ivan WilsonOFRuston HS, LA140
384Casey MeisnerRHPCypress Woods HS, TX246
4116LJ Mazzilli2BUConn (Sr) 250
5146Jared KingOFKansas State (Jr)68
6176Champ StuartOFBrevard College (Jr)199
7206Matt Oberste1BOklahoma (Jr)120
8236Ricky KnappRHPFlorida Gulf Coast (Jr)187
9266Patrick BiondiOFMichigan (Sr)247
10296Luis GuillormeSSCoral Springs Charter HS, FL222
11326Ty BashlorRHPSouth Georgia JC, GA323
12356Jeff McNeilSSCal State - Long Beach (Jr)396
13386Kevin McGowanRHPFranklin Pierce (Jr)Not Ranked
14416JD LeckenbyRHPWashington State (Jr)Not Ranked
15446Colton PlaiaCLoyola Marymount (Sr)334
16476Zach Mathieu1BFranklin Pierce (Jr)Not Ranked
17506John MagliozziRHPFlorida (So)439
18536Brent McMinnRHPNevada (Jr)443
19566Cody CrouseRHPBloomingdale Sr HS, FLNot Ranked
20596Dan HerrmannRHPChristian Brothers College HS, MONot Ranked
21626Morgan EarmanRHPDesert Christian Academy, CA420
22656Daniel ProcopioRHPCentral Technical School, CanadaNot Ranked
23686Gaither BumgardnerRHPSouth Carolina - Upstate (Sr)Not Ranked
24716Matt BrillRHPMoline HS, IN Not Ranked
25746Ricky JacquezRHPCentral Arizona JCNot Ranked
26776Owen SpiwakCCawthra Park SS, CanadaNot Ranked
27806Austin ColeyRHPBelmont (So)Not Ranked
28836Robby ColesRHPFlorida State (Jr)Not Ranked
29866Anthony KayLHPWard Melville HS, NYNot Ranked
30896David McKaySSViera HS, FLNot Ranked
31926Ben HechtRHPSt. Anthony School, ILNot Ranked
32956Juan EscaraCMater Academy Charter School, FLNot Ranked
33986Ryan ChapmanRHPSanta Ana JCNot Ranked
341016Cameron GriffinRHPColumbus State (Sr)Not Ranked
351046Ty WilliamsRHPSeminole State JCNot Ranked
361076Brandon Brosher1BSpringstead HS, FLNot Ranked
371106Juan Avena1BCompton JCNot Ranked
381136Paul PaezLHPRio Hondo JC391
391166Logan Quimuyog1BMosley HS, FLNot Ranked
401196JB WoodmanOFEdgewater HS, FL135

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 9 (5/30 - 6/5)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Luis Cessa, SP (A) - 7.2 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Cessa is part of a Sand Gnats rotation that all season has been taking turns being fantastic. On the season, Cessa has tossed 53.2 innings and has struck out 50 against just 9 walks. He's been susceptible to the long ball, having surrendered 8 HRs, but clearly that wasn't a problem this past week, when he left the game with 2 outs in the 8th after collecting 10 strikeouts and allowing just 2 hits, no walks, and no runs. Cessa is one of several low cost, under-the-radar international prospects who signed under former Mets GM Omar Minaya to break out over the past two calendar years. For all Minaya's failings (and they were plentiful), he and his team did an excellent job scouring the Latin market for low-profile pitching prospects. Cessa just turned 21 this April, so his success in full season ball is more interesting than when a college guy breezes through the league's more inexperienced hitters. Highlighting one of the problems that accompanies signing 16-year-olds, Cessa will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for a second time this year. Given his success (and assuming it continues), he may be attractive enough for another team to take a shot at hiding him in the back of a Major League bullpen for the 2014 season. After locking Hansel Robles into a 40-man spot last year, it'll be interesting to see if the Mets go the same route with Cessa, or whether they'll take their chances. If he does go unselected (or gets protected), I expect the Mets to move him one step at a time, meaning he'd start the 2014 season in the Florida State League. The Major Leagues are still very, very far away.

Age: 21
Acquired: 2008-09 International Period

Signing Bonus: Unknown (presumable minimal)
MLB ETA: 2016

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 30, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 8 (5/23 - 5/29)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Jack Leathersich, RP (AA) - 2.2 IP, 0-0, 1 SV, 0.00 ERA, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Any of the four starters in the Honorable Mention section would have been a fine choice for this spot, but I almost chose Leathersich last week so I put my finger on the scale and gave it to him this week. This has been a pretty typical week for the 22-year-old lefty, which is remarkable. Since the Mets drafted Leathersich in 2011, he has faced 456 hitters across four minor league levels and he has struck out 184 of them (40.4%). This despite a fastball that lives in the low 90s. To put that in perspective, the only Major League pitchers with a better strikeout rate over that period are Craig Kimbrel (46.2%), Aroldis Chapman (42.4%), and Kenley Jansen (41.4%). In fact, those three stud closers are the only MLBers with a K% north of even 35% over the past two calendar years. Leathersich's strikeout numbers are the eye-catcher, but his whole body of work this year has been impressive. He's been unscored upon in 17 of his 18 appearances this season. In May, Leathersich has 24 strikeouts against 3 walks and 5 hits in 11.1 innings. I fully expect the Mets to move the strikeout artist up to AAA in the fairly near future. And perhaps we'll even see Leathersich in Queens this September. Although as a 2011 draftee, there's no Rule 5 pressure pushing him north yet. One more thing, Leathersich is not a LOOGY. In fact, he exhibits an unusual (and significant) reverse platoon split. This year, lefties have hit .368/.455/.579 with 5 strikeouts in 22 plate appearances. Righties have "hit" .118/.238/.118 with 40 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances. It's not just a small sample quirk (though the effect is exaggerated in this small sample). Last year, lefties outhit righties against Leathersich too (.707 OPS for LHH vs. .515 OPS for RHH), and that was in 306 PA. He might not be the best prospect in the system, but he's certainly among the more interesting.

Age: 22
Acquired: 2011 Draft (Round 5, Overall Pick 162)

Signing Bonus: $110,000
MLB ETA: 2013-14

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 23, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 7 (5/16 - 5/22)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Steven Matz, SP (A) - 6.0 IP, 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

An overslot pick in a forgettable 2009 Mets draft, Matz has spent most of his 3 and a half years in the system dealing with arm issues. So being 21 (22 next week) and still in A-ball doesn't really raise any age-related red flags. It helps that the hard-throwing lefty has been outstanding so far for the Sand Gnats. In 34.2 innings this year, Matz has collected 39 strikeouts (10.1 K/9) and issued 11 walks (2.9 BB/9). This past week, Matz matched his career high in strikeouts (9) and innings pitched (6), both set last year in Kingsport. It remains to be seen whether Matz winds up a starter or a reliever, but the only real task right now is for him to get some innings under his belt and stay healthy. Matz will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December, and as a left-handed pitcher who can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, he'd be close to a lock, in my opinion, to get selected despite this being his first crack at A ball. As such, he's close to a shoe in to be added to the 40-man roster next November. If Matz continues demonstrating that his stuff is too good for the South Atlantic League, I could see the Mets moving him to St. Lucie this summer. But whether that promotion comes this year or next, his season will have been a huge success if he can just stay healthy and keep logging innings.

Age: 21
Acquired: 2009 Draft (Round 2, Overall Pick 72)

Signing Bonus: $895,000
MLB ETA: 2015

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 16, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 6 (5/9 - 5/15)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Matt Bowman, SP (A+) - 7.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

In a week in which the system's top 3 pitching prospects each turned in a fine start, the soon-to-be 22-year-old from Princeton stole the show. Bowman followed his pro debut (in which he struck out 30 against just 2 walks in 29.1 innings for Brooklyn) by breezing through the South Atlantic League (in which he went 4-0 in 5 starts and struck out 26 against just 4 walks in 30.2 innings). He hasn't missed a beat in the Florida State League, winning his first 2 starts and putting up 16 Ks against 2 walks. As a mid-round college arm, he's got a long way to go before he starts really getting noticed, but it's hard to put up better peripherals than he's done in his first 73 innings with the Mets (72 K, 8 BB). Given that he's already been bumped up once this year, I expect the Mets to leave Bowman in the St. Lucie rotation for awhile. But if he keeps this up, he might see Binghamton this summer. And that's where we'll really start to see whether he might have the chops to be a Major League pitcher.

Age: 21
Acquired: 2012 Draft (Round 13, Overall Pick 410)

Signing Bonus: $100,000
MLB ETA: 2015

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 9, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 5 (5/2 - 5/8)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Zack Wheeler, SP (AAA) - 6.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Even Mets fans with only a passing interest in the minors have Wheeler on their radar. The sole return the Mets got for Carlos Beltran in the July 2011 swap with the Giants, Wheeler has jumped from excellent prospect to elite prospect. He's a consensus Top 10 pitching prospect in baseball and fans rightly dream of the tall righty pairing with Matt Harvey to form a deadly 1-2 punch at the front of the Mets' rotation for years to come. And the future is rapidly approaching. After struggling for the most part through his first five starts in the PCL this year, Wheeler made a mechanical adjustment and has put together back-to-back strong starts (2-0, 12.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 12 K). The biggest obstacle remaining in Wheeler's way might be money. Specifically, the longer the Mets wait to call him up, the less likely Wheeler will qualify for a fourth year of arbitration (as a Super 2, replacing a year at the league minimum). Given the current big league situation, I'd expect the Mets will wait until mid-June to debut the young phenom. This would give Wheeler another 6-ish starts in Las Vegas to iron out the kinks. Wheeler is already on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will not need to make a corresponding 40-man transaction when he eventually does get the call.

Age: 22
Acquired: 2011 Trade (Orig. 2009 Draft - Round 1, Overall Pick 6 by SF)

Signing Bonus: $3,300,000
MLB ETA: June 2013

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 2, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 4 (4/25 - 5/1)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Noah Syndergaard, SP (A+) - 7.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

In a strong week for Mets pitching prospects, I'm going with the second piece in last winter's blockbuster deal that sent RA Dickey to Toronto, who turned in his best performance as a Met this week. In fact, Syndergaard hasn't allowed an earned run in his past two starts, covering 13 innings during which he's walked 3 and struck out 11. The tall righty was the Mets' consensus #3 prospect coming into the season, so it's nice to see him settling in to Advanced A-ball so quickly. A nationally ranked prospect for the second straight year, Syndergaard could find himself at the center of a lot of trade speculation this winter (perhaps even this summer). But for now, I expect the Mets to keep him on the same minor league trajectory as Zack Wheeler, who spent the entirety of his age 20 season in Advanced-A.

Age: 20
Acquired: 2012-13 Offseason Trade (Orig. 2010 Draft - Round 1s, Overall Pick 38 by TOR)

Signing Bonus: $600,000
MLB ETA: 2015

Honorable Mention:

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Thursday, April 25, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 3 (4/18 - 4/24)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Rafael Montero, SP (AA) - 6.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

I do what I can to mix it up when selecting the top prospects of the week, but Montero is making that difficult. Another strong outing this week brings his season line to 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA, a .71 WHIP, and a 27 to 1 K:BB ratio. In his first 4 starts he's carving up the Eastern League like he's a big leaguer. And in light of his success and the Mets' starting pitching woes, there are many fans calling for just that. But as good as he's been, now's not the time. I expect Montero will remain in AA for at least another month before they even consider moving him up to AAA. But every dominant start makes it a little more likely that we could see him in Queens before the year is out.

Age: 22
Acquired: 2010-11 International Period
Signing Bonus: $80,000
MLB ETA: 2014... (or sooner?)

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, April 18, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 2 (4/11 - 4/17)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Jacob deGrom, SP (A+/AA) - 14.0 IP, 0-1, 3.21 ERA, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 15 K

There may be some recency bias in effect here, but deGrom earns this spot on the strength of his stellar AA debut last night. He was a hard-luck loser as the B-Mets went down 1-0, but he lasted 8 innings, giving up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk with 8 strikeouts. DeGrom is perhaps the most underhyped of the Mets vaunted collection of prospect arms, though I doubt that remains the case for much longer if he continues putting together starts like this. On the older side for a prospect, deGrom gets some latitude having migrated to pitching full time late in his college career and then missing a season plus as a pro recovering from Tommy John surgery. One of several strong college arms the Mets took in the 2010 draft, the hard-throwing righthander must be added to the Mets' 40-man roster by November in order to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Even so, I don't think it's terribly likely that deGrom debuts with the Mets this year. The past few years they've been stingy with call-ups, and deGrom will likely be pushing his innings limit by August if all goes well.

Age: 24
Acquired: 2010 Draft (Round 9, Overall Pick 272)
Signing Bonus: $95,000
MLB ETA: 2014

Honorable Mention:

Thursday, April 11, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 1 (4/4 - 4/10)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Rafael Montero, SP (AA) - 11.2 IP, 1-0, 1.54 ERA, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 15 K

One of the more advanced arms in the Mets stable of young pitching prospects, the 22-year-old Montero breezed through his first two starts. His 15 strikeouts against 0 walks this week are an example of his exciting combination of stuff and control. The instinct is to be concerned about guys who spend as much time in the strike zone as Montero does, because against better hitters that can be dangerous. But here we are in AA, and Montero continues to live in the zone & miss bats and induce weak contact. It's not a problem until it's a problem, and right now, it's not a problem. As a signee from the 2010-11 international class, Montero has one more year of Rule 5 protection remaining, so there is no need on that front to rush him to the 40-man roster in 2013. Montero has been moved aggressively in his 2 years in the system, but he has met every challenge so far. Even so, I expect that he'll spend the first half of 2013 in AA regardless of how well he pitches this spring. He's also a guy I think is a strong candidate to be moved this summer or next offseason, should the Mets look to add a legitimate OF bat on the trade market.

Age: 22
Acquired: 2010-11 International Period
Signing Bonus: $80,000
MLB ETA: 2014

Honorable Mention: