Thursday, May 30, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 8 (5/23 - 5/29)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Jack Leathersich, RP (AA) - 2.2 IP, 0-0, 1 SV, 0.00 ERA, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Any of the four starters in the Honorable Mention section would have been a fine choice for this spot, but I almost chose Leathersich last week so I put my finger on the scale and gave it to him this week. This has been a pretty typical week for the 22-year-old lefty, which is remarkable. Since the Mets drafted Leathersich in 2011, he has faced 456 hitters across four minor league levels and he has struck out 184 of them (40.4%). This despite a fastball that lives in the low 90s. To put that in perspective, the only Major League pitchers with a better strikeout rate over that period are Craig Kimbrel (46.2%), Aroldis Chapman (42.4%), and Kenley Jansen (41.4%). In fact, those three stud closers are the only MLBers with a K% north of even 35% over the past two calendar years. Leathersich's strikeout numbers are the eye-catcher, but his whole body of work this year has been impressive. He's been unscored upon in 17 of his 18 appearances this season. In May, Leathersich has 24 strikeouts against 3 walks and 5 hits in 11.1 innings. I fully expect the Mets to move the strikeout artist up to AAA in the fairly near future. And perhaps we'll even see Leathersich in Queens this September. Although as a 2011 draftee, there's no Rule 5 pressure pushing him north yet. One more thing, Leathersich is not a LOOGY. In fact, he exhibits an unusual (and significant) reverse platoon split. This year, lefties have hit .368/.455/.579 with 5 strikeouts in 22 plate appearances. Righties have "hit" .118/.238/.118 with 40 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances. It's not just a small sample quirk (though the effect is exaggerated in this small sample). Last year, lefties outhit righties against Leathersich too (.707 OPS for LHH vs. .515 OPS for RHH), and that was in 306 PA. He might not be the best prospect in the system, but he's certainly among the more interesting.

Age: 22
Acquired: 2011 Draft (Round 5, Overall Pick 162)

Signing Bonus: $110,000
MLB ETA: 2013-14


Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 23, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 7 (5/16 - 5/22)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Steven Matz, SP (A) - 6.0 IP, 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

An overslot pick in a forgettable 2009 Mets draft, Matz has spent most of his 3 and a half years in the system dealing with arm issues. So being 21 (22 next week) and still in A-ball doesn't really raise any age-related red flags. It helps that the hard-throwing lefty has been outstanding so far for the Sand Gnats. In 34.2 innings this year, Matz has collected 39 strikeouts (10.1 K/9) and issued 11 walks (2.9 BB/9). This past week, Matz matched his career high in strikeouts (9) and innings pitched (6), both set last year in Kingsport. It remains to be seen whether Matz winds up a starter or a reliever, but the only real task right now is for him to get some innings under his belt and stay healthy. Matz will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December, and as a left-handed pitcher who can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, he'd be close to a lock, in my opinion, to get selected despite this being his first crack at A ball. As such, he's close to a shoe in to be added to the 40-man roster next November. If Matz continues demonstrating that his stuff is too good for the South Atlantic League, I could see the Mets moving him to St. Lucie this summer. But whether that promotion comes this year or next, his season will have been a huge success if he can just stay healthy and keep logging innings.

Age: 21
Acquired: 2009 Draft (Round 2, Overall Pick 72)

Signing Bonus: $895,000
MLB ETA: 2015


Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 16, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 6 (5/9 - 5/15)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Matt Bowman, SP (A+) - 7.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

In a week in which the system's top 3 pitching prospects each turned in a fine start, the soon-to-be 22-year-old from Princeton stole the show. Bowman followed his pro debut (in which he struck out 30 against just 2 walks in 29.1 innings for Brooklyn) by breezing through the South Atlantic League (in which he went 4-0 in 5 starts and struck out 26 against just 4 walks in 30.2 innings). He hasn't missed a beat in the Florida State League, winning his first 2 starts and putting up 16 Ks against 2 walks. As a mid-round college arm, he's got a long way to go before he starts really getting noticed, but it's hard to put up better peripherals than he's done in his first 73 innings with the Mets (72 K, 8 BB). Given that he's already been bumped up once this year, I expect the Mets to leave Bowman in the St. Lucie rotation for awhile. But if he keeps this up, he might see Binghamton this summer. And that's where we'll really start to see whether he might have the chops to be a Major League pitcher.

Age: 21
Acquired: 2012 Draft (Round 13, Overall Pick 410)

Signing Bonus: $100,000
MLB ETA: 2015


Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 9, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 5 (5/2 - 5/8)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Zack Wheeler, SP (AAA) - 6.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Even Mets fans with only a passing interest in the minors have Wheeler on their radar. The sole return the Mets got for Carlos Beltran in the July 2011 swap with the Giants, Wheeler has jumped from excellent prospect to elite prospect. He's a consensus Top 10 pitching prospect in baseball and fans rightly dream of the tall righty pairing with Matt Harvey to form a deadly 1-2 punch at the front of the Mets' rotation for years to come. And the future is rapidly approaching. After struggling for the most part through his first five starts in the PCL this year, Wheeler made a mechanical adjustment and has put together back-to-back strong starts (2-0, 12.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 12 K). The biggest obstacle remaining in Wheeler's way might be money. Specifically, the longer the Mets wait to call him up, the less likely Wheeler will qualify for a fourth year of arbitration (as a Super 2, replacing a year at the league minimum). Given the current big league situation, I'd expect the Mets will wait until mid-June to debut the young phenom. This would give Wheeler another 6-ish starts in Las Vegas to iron out the kinks. Wheeler is already on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will not need to make a corresponding 40-man transaction when he eventually does get the call.

Age: 22
Acquired: 2011 Trade (Orig. 2009 Draft - Round 1, Overall Pick 6 by SF)

Signing Bonus: $3,300,000
MLB ETA: June 2013


Honorable Mention:

Thursday, May 2, 2013

2013 Mets Prospect Report: Week 4 (4/25 - 5/1)

Top Pitching Prospect of the Week

Noah Syndergaard, SP (A+) - 7.0 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

In a strong week for Mets pitching prospects, I'm going with the second piece in last winter's blockbuster deal that sent RA Dickey to Toronto, who turned in his best performance as a Met this week. In fact, Syndergaard hasn't allowed an earned run in his past two starts, covering 13 innings during which he's walked 3 and struck out 11. The tall righty was the Mets' consensus #3 prospect coming into the season, so it's nice to see him settling in to Advanced A-ball so quickly. A nationally ranked prospect for the second straight year, Syndergaard could find himself at the center of a lot of trade speculation this winter (perhaps even this summer). But for now, I expect the Mets to keep him on the same minor league trajectory as Zack Wheeler, who spent the entirety of his age 20 season in Advanced-A.

Age: 20
Acquired: 2012-13 Offseason Trade (Orig. 2010 Draft - Round 1s, Overall Pick 38 by TOR)

Signing Bonus: $600,000
MLB ETA: 2015


Honorable Mention: