Wednesday, June 29, 2011

The Mets probably won't make the playoffs...

... but they might.

The Mets are currently 40-39 and sit 5 games behind the Braves for the NL Wild Card (4 in the loss column). If you were to project that record to 162 games, you'd get an unimpressive 82-80, which would render them totally irrelevant when compared to the Braves' 92-70 projected record. However, the Mets started the season with an ugly 5-13 stretch. That can't be erased, but if you assume it is anomalous, and instead project their record in remaining games based on the 35-26 they've put together after that start, you'd get an ultimate record of 88-74. That, we can work with, especially since the Mets still have 9 head-to-head contests remaining with the Braves. Now, the Braves aren't the Mets' only hurdle in their quest for a playoff spot, and with half the season left, there are still a plethora of variables in play. I've also taken a few Met-favorable liberties with my assumptions. There's no denying that the Mets have a massive hole out of which to climb and that they're still a longshot. But perhaps their situation isn't as bleak as it appears at first blush after all.

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