... but they might.
The Mets are currently 40-39 and sit 5 games behind the Braves for the NL Wild Card (4 in the loss column). If you were to project that record to 162 games, you'd get an unimpressive 82-80, which would render them totally irrelevant when compared to the Braves' 92-70 projected record. However, the Mets started the season with an ugly 5-13 stretch. That can't be erased, but if you assume it is anomalous, and instead project their record in remaining games based on the 35-26 they've put together after that start, you'd get an ultimate record of 88-74. That, we can work with, especially since the Mets still have 9 head-to-head contests remaining with the Braves. Now, the Braves aren't the Mets' only hurdle in their quest for a playoff spot, and with half the season left, there are still a plethora of variables in play. I've also taken a few Met-favorable liberties with my assumptions. There's no denying that the Mets have a massive hole out of which to climb and that they're still a longshot. But perhaps their situation isn't as bleak as it appears at first blush after all.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
The Basics: What are options?
Options are among the more misunderstood facets of the game. Options (or option years) are years in which a team can send a player who is on the 40-man roster down to the minor leagues without the risk of losing that player to another team. A player sent down in this manner is said to be on optional assignment with the minor league club (hence the term "option"). Each player is granted 3 option years, however during an option year, there is no specific limit on the number of times a player can be called up or optioned down. There are, however, a few other noteworthy limitations and exceptions.
A player who has been optioned cannot be recalled until 10 days after the assignment, unless he is replacing a player who is being placed on the DL.
If a player spends fewer than 20 days on optional assignment in a given season, the season does not count as an option year for that player.
If a player has used all 3 options, but has not yet played 5 full professional seasons, he becomes eligible for a 4th option. A full professional season involves at least 90 days spent on an active roster in a given season.
For a list of Mets with options remaining, as well as a more detailed breakdown of individual Mets' option status, check out the Options tab.
A player who has been optioned cannot be recalled until 10 days after the assignment, unless he is replacing a player who is being placed on the DL.
If a player spends fewer than 20 days on optional assignment in a given season, the season does not count as an option year for that player.
If a player has used all 3 options, but has not yet played 5 full professional seasons, he becomes eligible for a 4th option. A full professional season involves at least 90 days spent on an active roster in a given season.
For a list of Mets with options remaining, as well as a more detailed breakdown of individual Mets' option status, check out the Options tab.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Dillon Gee is still getting lucky, but he's also getting (much) better
With all due SSS caveats, here are Gee's Major League numbers as a starter from 2010 and 2011:
What jumps off the page is that the numbers over which Gee has the most individual control (K/9 and BB/9) have significantly improved from his debut last September. He's managed to strikeout more hitters while walking fewer, to the point where his numbers in those categories are now in line with NL averages. In turn, he's knocked almost a full run off his FIP (a measure of ERA that attempts to be independent of fielding, i.e. a truer measure of a pitcher's individual contribution). Meanwhile, the numbers he has the least control over (BABIP and LOB%) have regressed toward their respective means. The NL as a league in 2011 has seen starters pitch to a BABIP of .288 and a LOB% of 72.1%. This regression toward those league averages is a major positive, as it implies that Gee's 2011 numbers are increasingly a reflection of his ability and less the result of the random nature of the game. And through all of it, he has continued to pitch deep into games, averaging around 6 1/2 innings per start (which is yet another important measure of his value).
Before diving in head-first on Gee, though, it's critical to remember that he's less than 100 innings into his big league career. There are still several cycles of adjustment that he and the league must make before he can be considered established. And there's also still enough daylight between Gee's BABIP and LOB% numbers and league averages to indicate that he's likely to experience some additional regression in performance measures like ERA and BAA (batting average against). Still, there is plenty to be excited about, and it's looking more and more like the Mets found a real gem in the 21st round of the '07 draft. One who is under team control at a very affordable rate for a long, long time. And one who, thus far, has been an absolute pleasure to watch pitch.
| Year | IP | IP/G | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% |
| 2010 | 33.0 | 6.6 | 2.18 | 4.20 | 4.64 | 4.09 | 0.55 | .226 | 80.7% |
| 2011 | 57.2 | 6.4 | 2.65 | 3.34 | 6.24 | 2.65 | 0.47 | .249 | 76.1% |
What jumps off the page is that the numbers over which Gee has the most individual control (K/9 and BB/9) have significantly improved from his debut last September. He's managed to strikeout more hitters while walking fewer, to the point where his numbers in those categories are now in line with NL averages. In turn, he's knocked almost a full run off his FIP (a measure of ERA that attempts to be independent of fielding, i.e. a truer measure of a pitcher's individual contribution). Meanwhile, the numbers he has the least control over (BABIP and LOB%) have regressed toward their respective means. The NL as a league in 2011 has seen starters pitch to a BABIP of .288 and a LOB% of 72.1%. This regression toward those league averages is a major positive, as it implies that Gee's 2011 numbers are increasingly a reflection of his ability and less the result of the random nature of the game. And through all of it, he has continued to pitch deep into games, averaging around 6 1/2 innings per start (which is yet another important measure of his value).
Before diving in head-first on Gee, though, it's critical to remember that he's less than 100 innings into his big league career. There are still several cycles of adjustment that he and the league must make before he can be considered established. And there's also still enough daylight between Gee's BABIP and LOB% numbers and league averages to indicate that he's likely to experience some additional regression in performance measures like ERA and BAA (batting average against). Still, there is plenty to be excited about, and it's looking more and more like the Mets found a real gem in the 21st round of the '07 draft. One who is under team control at a very affordable rate for a long, long time. And one who, thus far, has been an absolute pleasure to watch pitch.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Nick Evans cleared waivers and accepted his assignment
After being removed from the 40-man roster last Friday, Nick Evans has cleared waivers and accepted his outright assignment to Buffalo. Evans has the right to become a free agent at the end of the season if he is not back on the 40-man roster, although he would have been eligible for that anyway due to minor league service time (Rule 55).
Evans' decision to accept the assignment makes sense on a number of levels. He knows the Mets' system well, and is at least familiar, if not comfortable, with things in Buffalo. He knows that Scott Hairston is a free agent at the end of the season, so there is a potential opening he could fill on the Major League bench next spring. And, perhaps most importantly, he knows that he makes significantly more money playing in AAA for the Mets than he would elsewhere.
If Evans had refused this outright assignment and sought employment in another system, he would have been looking at a minor league minimum salary of around $67,000. Perhaps he could have done a little better, perhaps not. But with the Mets, he will make quite a bit more, with a minimum in the neighborhood of $110,000-$115,000 in the minors. Article VI (D) of the current CBA stipulates that a player under reserve to the club cannot be paid a minimum minor league salary below 60% of his total compensation from the prior year. Going back to the first time his contract was renewed, prior to the 2009 season, his minor league minimum salary would have been roughly $130,000, give or take. Prior to 2010 the minimum would have been slightly higher, closer to $135,000 (assuming he had been paid the minimum in the prior year). And then this year, it would have been in that $110,000-$115,000 range, again assuming that all along the Mets had offered him the minimum contract at both the Major and minor league levels.
All of that aside, though, his bat should at least help out a Bisons team that has won just just 3 of their past 14 games.
Evans' decision to accept the assignment makes sense on a number of levels. He knows the Mets' system well, and is at least familiar, if not comfortable, with things in Buffalo. He knows that Scott Hairston is a free agent at the end of the season, so there is a potential opening he could fill on the Major League bench next spring. And, perhaps most importantly, he knows that he makes significantly more money playing in AAA for the Mets than he would elsewhere.
If Evans had refused this outright assignment and sought employment in another system, he would have been looking at a minor league minimum salary of around $67,000. Perhaps he could have done a little better, perhaps not. But with the Mets, he will make quite a bit more, with a minimum in the neighborhood of $110,000-$115,000 in the minors. Article VI (D) of the current CBA stipulates that a player under reserve to the club cannot be paid a minimum minor league salary below 60% of his total compensation from the prior year. Going back to the first time his contract was renewed, prior to the 2009 season, his minor league minimum salary would have been roughly $130,000, give or take. Prior to 2010 the minimum would have been slightly higher, closer to $135,000 (assuming he had been paid the minimum in the prior year). And then this year, it would have been in that $110,000-$115,000 range, again assuming that all along the Mets had offered him the minimum contract at both the Major and minor league levels.
All of that aside, though, his bat should at least help out a Bisons team that has won just just 3 of their past 14 games.
Monday, June 13, 2011
New Feature: The Draft
I have added a page entitled "The Draft" to the blog. There is a tab up top that links to the page, or you can click here. The page includes Mets' draft classes going back to 2001, and contains a HS/JuCo/College breakdown of each draft class, as well as number of Top 100 picks and lists draftees who played in the Majors, guys who were traded, and players still with the organization.
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